OPEC points to 2017 oil surplus as Saudi output hits record
Oil Market Report for August
- Crude oil prices eased to around $45 bbl in August as a global supply overhang weighed and demand growth weakened. Brent crude had threatened to break below $40 bbl at the end of July.
- Global oil demand growth is expected to slow from 1.4 mb/d in 2016 to 1.2 mb/d in 2017, as underlying support from low oil prices wanes. The 2017 forecast – though still above-trend – is 0.1 mb/d below our previous expectations due to a dimmer macroeconomic outlook. The 2016 outlook is unchanged from last month’s Report.
- Global oil supply rose by about 0.8 mb/d in July, as both OPEC and non-OPEC production increased. Output was 215 kb/d lower than a year earlier, as declines from non-OPEC more than offset an 840 kb/d annual gain in total OPEC liquids. Non-OPEC production is forecast to drop by 0.9 mb/d this year before rebounding by 0.3 mb/d in 2017.
- OPEC crude oil output rose by 150 kb/d to 33.39 mb/d in July as Saudi Arabia pushed output to the highest ever and Iraq pumped more. Robust Middle East production lifted total OPEC crude supply 680 kb/d above a year ago and held output at an eight-year high.
- Global refinery throughput in 3Q16 is expected to rise by 2.2 mb/d from a weak 2Q16 to a record 80.6 mb/d. At only 0.6 mb/d above a year earlier, 3Q16 runs will lag expected demand growth, eroding some of the product stock cushion built up since mid-2015. Runs are forecast to decline seasonally to below 80 mb/d in 4Q16.
- An OECD inventory overhang continued to shift from crude into products during June, with commercial stocks swelling by 5.7 mb to a record 3 093 mb., Declines in crude oil holdings were offset by an above average product build of 15.9 mb, with big volumes of US propane and other NGLs moving into storage.