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How The U.S. Dollar Influences Oil Prices
Fed Building Crude oil has reached a critical technical level, which is likely to test the resolve of the bulls to push prices higher. The bulls have a favorable tailwind with production outages reducing the supply glut. Till about two weeks ago, the drop in the U.S. dollar was also supportive of the crude oil prices, but since then, the dollar has recovered, putting pressure on the crude oil prices. The U.S. dollar and the various commodities have an inverse correlation. The chart below shows the correlation between crude and the U.S. dollar index for the past 12 years. (Click to enlarge) The chart shows a clear inverse correlation between the two, especially when there is a sustained trend. From 2003 to 2008, the dollar was in a sustained bear trend, during which, crude oil witnessed one of its strongest bull runs. When the dollar formed a bottom, crude […]
Turkish-Russian Relations Worsen As Turkish Helicopter Is Downed
Kurdish Militant The “game-changing” downing of a Turkish attack helicopter by Kurdish rebels with a Russian-made missile could further intensify still simmering hostilities between Ankara and Moscow. Coming nearly six months after a Turkish jets downed a Russian bomber operating from a Syrian airbase, the May 13 incident made front-page news in Turkey. “It was a message to [the] government and public,” commented Metehan Demir, an independent defense analyst and former Turkish military pilot. The missile featured in a Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) video of the attack “is a Russian-made SA18 or SA24,” he noted, using the North Atlantic Treaty Organization codenames for the shoulder-held, anti-aircraft missiles 9K38 Igla (“Needle”) and 9K338 Igla, manufactured since Soviet times in the Russian town of Kolomna. Two pilots died in the crash, which Ankara initially attributed to a technical malfunction. On May 19, the Turkish military stated that the helicopter “was hit […]
Iran has no plans to freeze oil exports, official says ahead of OPEC meeting
Iran has no plans to freeze the level of its oil production and exports, Deputy Oil Minister Rokneddin Javadi was quoted on Sunday as saying, as the country tries to raise its crude exports to pre-sanctions levels. “Under the present circumstances, the government and the Oil Ministry have not issued any policy or plan to the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) towards halting the increase in the production and exports of oil,” Javadi, who also heads the state-run NIOC, told Iran’s Mehr news agency. “Currently, Iran’s crude oil exports, excluding gas condensates, have reached 2 million barrels per day (bpd),” Javadi said. “Iran’s crude oil export capacity will reach 2.2 million barrels by the middle of summer.” A meeting of the OPEC exporters’ group, […]
Netanyahu Approves Deal to Develop Israel’s Natural-Gas Fields
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Sunday approved an amended deal to develop the country’s natural-gas fields after months of legal wrangling that has stunted the growth of the domestic hydrocarbon industry. Israel’s highest court in March ruled against an initial framework agreement to develop the country’s offshore fields. It called the deal unconstitutional, citing a clause in the agreement that gave energy companies pricing and regulatory stability for 10 years regardless of potential shifts in the government. Mr. Netanyahu on Sunday said the clause had been removed from the amended framework. An Israeli official said the government had added another clause that said the gas companies would be potentially compensated for any future changes in regulation. “The important thing now isn’t to delay,” Mr. Netanyahu told his weekly cabinet meeting. The new […]
Venezuela Descends Into Chaos… Europe and US Next
It has been less than two months since I visited Caracas, Venezuela. While things were already very bad when I was there, they are now worse. Power shortages have deepened (and this in an oil rich country!); food is becoming scarce (some people have resorted to eating dogs and cats); people lie on concrete slabs in hospitals without medicine (if you thought medical care was bad, just wait until it’s free!); and riots and looting are growing worse. I went to see the end stages of socialism, complete with hyperinflation. I wanted to see where Europe and the US are headed. In hindsight, it was shocking to see how few people in Venezuela understood what was going on. You’d think in this day and age, they’d just watch a few Youtube videos (like some of ours) and realize the reality: Almost all their problems are a direct result of […]
