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China central bank chief economist forecasts 6.8% growth in 2016
The chief economist for China’s central bank forecasts that the economy will grow 6.8 per cent in 2016, well ahead of independent estimates from the International Monetary Fund and most private economists. After a bout of currency depreciation and weak data earlier in the year, sentiment towards China has improved in recent weeks as the latest data suggest government stimulus efforts have helped prevent a sharp fall-off in investment. In its semi-annual economic forecast published late on Wednesday, the People’s Bank of China’s research bureau forecast that growth will fall comfortably within the government’s target range of 6.5 per cent to 7 per cent and close to last year’s 6.9 per cent.
The IMF and Asian Development Bank both forecast 6.5 per cent growth for this year. Growth projections by private economists average 6.7 per cent for the second quarter, according to a Reuters poll, following 6.8 per cent growth in the first three months. “The strength of fiscal policy has been increased, and real estate and infrastructure investment have accelerated, but private investment remains weak,” the research bureau, led by China economist Ma Jun, said in its report. The bureau’s forecasts do not represent the PBoC’s official view. Mr Ma was formerly chief China economist at Deutsche Bank. The new forecasts come as inflation data on Thursday showed wholesale price deflation pressures easing in May, a positive sign for China’s struggling manufacturing sector. The producer price index, which measures prices at the factory gate, fell 2.8 per cent in May from a year earlier, an improvement on April’s 3.3 per cent contraction.
Chinese oil demand slips
Oil demand in China, a leading global economy, contracted for the third straight month in part because of economic slowdown, data analysis found. Analysts with the World Bank downgraded the forecast for global economic growth for the year from 2.9 percent to 2.4 percent. India’s economy grows by 7.6 percent, while Brazil and Russia sink deeper into recession. For China, the World Bank said the economy expands this year by 6.7 percent, compared with 6.9 percent last year. “In an environment of anemic growth, the global economy faces mounting risks, including a further slowdown in major emerging markets,” the World Bank said. A downturn in the Chinese economy impacted global demand for oil and petroleum products, contributing to the surplus on the […]
EIA Projects An Increase In Global Oil Supply
The EIA’s Short Term Energy Outlook is out. The data is in million barrels per day. (Click to enlarge) While not much has changed in the EIA’s projection since last month, their projection for the remainder of this year and next year has increased slightly. The EIA has Non-OPEC total liquids peaking, so far, in 2015. They have Non-OPEC liquids dropping .58 Mbd in 2016 and another .24 Mbd in 2017. (Click to enlarge) The EIA has U.S. C+C production dropping sharply through August then leveling out for the remainder of the next two years. (Click to enlarge) All gain in the next year and a half will come from the Gulf of Mexico, or that is what the EIA expects. The spikes lower in August, September and October are the EIA making their expectations of what the hurricane season will bring. (Click to enlarge) The EIA expects Alaska […]
Unlikely casualty in California’s renewable energy boom: natural gas
The La Paloma natural gas-fired generating plant is shown in McKittrick, California, U.S., April 20, 2009. Courtesy of Rockland Capital/Handout via In February of 2001, then California Governor Gray Davis stood at the site of Calpine Corp’s new Sutter natural gas power plant and unveiled his plan to fast-track construction of similar stations to add 20,000 megawatts of modern, efficient generation to the state in three years. Natural gas, Davis said, was “the most environmentally friendly, clean, appropriate fuel” to help the state move beyond the energy crisis it had just endured and enable its 34 million residents “to enjoy the good life that California represents.” Today, the plants inaugurated that day are among the casualties of a monumental shift in the U.S. energy landscape. An unexpected combination of oversupply of natural gas and a boom in solar and other renewable energy has depressed power prices and threatened the […]
Putin’s Core Support Begins to Waver
Russia embarks on an almost two-year-long election season this summer that ends with a presidential contest in 2018. But unlike previous years, the country’s faltering economy has taken its toll on lower-income voters who blame the Duma and the cabinet for their plight. Five years ago, allegations of vote rigging led to the biggest antigovernment protests since Vladimir Putin’s ascent—dozens of opposition activists and leaders were jailed. The current election cycle comes amid an economic crisis caused in large part by earlier declines in oil prices, Russia’s key export. The recession has left many employers cash-strapped, sending workers into the streets to protest unpaid wages and reduced working hours. The Center for Economic & Political Reforms, a think-tank close to the Russian Communist Party, reports an almost twofold increase in protests in March compared with previous months, a steep rise since last year. Vladimir Putin. Photographer: Pascal Le Segretain/Getty […]
