Today's Top #Energy #Headlines - March 22, 2022

                 

' In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

OIL SUPPLY OUTLOOK GRIM AS FUTURES CLIMB

 

• Crude oil futures climb for third day as supply outlook remains tight
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• Oil Surges as Ukraine War Tightens Supply, Mideast Tensions Rise

END OF FOSSIL ENERGY TRACKING THE NEWS

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• Oil jumps as EU weighs Russian ban, Saudi refinery output hit
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• ‘’The Market Is Untradable’’ Oil Traders Grapple With Extreme Volatility
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PRICES JUST KEEP JUMPING AROUND

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• Food Security Panics Governments as Ukraine War Blocks Supplies
• Energy Crisis Hits Poorer Import-Reliant Nations Hardest
• U.N. Secretary General Guterres warns goal to keep global warming to 1.5 degrees C ‘is on life support’ – The Washington Post
• OPEC’s Best Kept Secret Will Soon Be Revealed
• Yemen Houthis attack Saudi energy facilities, refinery output hit
• Saudi Arabia’s Yasref refinery output disrupted from attacks: ministry
• Saudi Aramco raises 2022 capex guidance to $40-$50 bil
• Saudi Armco net revenues double to $110bn on surging oil demand
• Iran oil minister says aiming for 1.4 million bpd crude exports
• War Complicates Russia’s Role in Supplying Commodities to China
• Pressed to choose sides on Ukraine, China trade favors the West
• China says it will offer 10 million yuan more of humanitarian aid to Ukraine
• Shell cleared to restart Prelude LNG output off Australia
• China LNG Imports From Russia Doubled in February as Demand Fell
• U.S. food and farming costs could be pushed higher by war in Ukraine
• Union workers at Chevron refinery prepare for strike on Monday
• Texas wildfire kills 1, as officials worry extreme drought could worsen conditions
• $100 Oil Is A Wakeup Call For Canadian Producers
• The Battle for Kyiv Looms as a Long and Bloody Conflict
• Russia’s war in Ukraine stalls amid casualties, equipment losses – The Washington Post
• Oilfield Service Majors Aren’t Pulling Out Of Russia
• Bulgaria will not hold talks to renew gas deal with Gazprom
• War in Ukraine Is Already Taking Its Toll on Global Food Supplies
• Germany says it has clinched long-term gas supply deal with Qatar
• EU reviews sustainable food plans as Ukraine war disrupts imports
• The World’s Biggest Oilfield Contractors Are Quitting Future Russia Work
• EU foreign ministers consider new sanctions on Russia, some push for oil embargo
• Russia’s Gazprom says it continues gas exports to Europe via Ukraine
• Europe Gas Drops to Lowest Since March 1 as Russia Flows Steady
• Italy’s Enel Prepares to Exit Russia Within Months, CEO Says
• UK looks to North Sea oil and gas in race to secure domestic energy supplies
• The unpredictable risks of a new Russian debt crisis
• A potential Russian debt crisis carries unpredictable risks

Today's Top #Energy #Headlines - March 21, 2022

 March 21, 2022

' In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

OIL, COMMODITIES, RISKS, PRICES, VOLATILITY, ETC. WE ARE ALL OVER THE MAP WITH NO CLEAR PATH

• Oil gains as Russia-Ukraine talks stall
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• Oil Posts Second Weekly Decline as Volatility Rocks Markets

• The World’s Biggest Commodities Markets Are Starting to Seize Up
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• The global economy’s growing risks: stagflation, refugees and lockdowns

TALKS CREATE MORE UNKNOWNS

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• IEA Releases Plan To Cut Oil Use By 2.7 Million Bpd
• Eastern Antarctica sees record temperatures 70 degrees above normal
• Antarctica sea ice concentration hit record low
• India’s oil imports from US to rise, amid criticism for Russian purchases
• OPEC+ Oil Production Is 1 Million Bpd Lower Than Target Level
• IEA urges OPEC+ to boost supply as diplomatic pressure for increases builds
• OPEC Update, March 2022
• Biden and Xi fail to bridge differences over Ukraine war
• China Reports Covid Deaths for First Time Since January 2021
• CHINA DATA: Gasoil exports sink to multi-year lows in Jan, Feb on quota cuts
• After Biden-Xi call, U.S. warns China it could face sanctions if it backs Russia in Ukraine
• Relentless Fertilizer Rally Means No Relief for Farmer, Consumer
• Drought-stricken California imposes new round of water cuts
• This Timber Company Sold Millions of Dollars of Useless Carbon Offsets
• U.S. oil rigs down despite $100/bbl crude prices -Baker Hughes
• Western drought to worsen this year, NOAA says
• Biden’s chance to tackle climate change is fading amid global energy upheaval – The Washington Post
• Renewables Will Generate 44% Of U.S. Electricity In 2050
• Analysis: Western companies wrestle with Russia ‘half-exits’
• U.S. targets Abramovich plane, 99 others over Russia export violations
• Halliburton, Schlumberger draw back from Russia amid U.S. energy sanctions
• Engie to work with Belgium to study extending nuclear power there until 2035
• Russia says it continues gas exports to Europe via Ukraine
• Factbox: Countries and companies shun Russian crude over Ukraine invasion
• Greek farmers on tractors protest ‘unbearable’ fuel, fertilizer costs
• Europe Can Survive Throughout Summer Without Russian Gas
• EU Oil And Gas Embargo On Russia Could Hit UK Hard
• Russian troops seize agricultural assets in Ukraine, could risk global food security
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Today's Top #Energy #Headlines - March 20, 2022

 

  March 20, 2022

' In the Know, Ahead of Markets, Deciding Wisely...'

GEOPOLITICAL RISKS AND ISSUES OVERSHADOW OIL AND ENERGY MARKETS Oil gains as Russia-Ukraine talks stall Oil Climbs Near $106 After  Jumping on Doubts Over Peace Talks The World Could See A Record-Breaking Oil Supply Shock Parliament vote signals uphill battle for Ismaael and INOC Uzbekistan Breaks Ranks In  Central Asia, Calls For End To Ukraine War Other Top Headlines Not Linked COPY AND SEARCH VIA GOOGLE Russian oil exports to India surge as Europe shuns cargoes Is Venezuelan Oil Really Worth Rolling Back Sanctions For? Iran ready to meet India’s energy needs, Tehran envoy tells New Delhi Shanghai pushes ahead with mass COVID tests as new cases spike Only Half of Chinese Aged 80 and Older Are Fully Vaccinated China weighs exit from ‘zero COVID’ and the risks involved Russia’s War Is A Political Minefield For China Pandemic restrictions slow crude discharging at northeast China port, impacting refiners Tight COVID-19 measures slow China’s trucked LNG sales in several provinces Joe Biden to warn Xi Jinping of US retaliation if China actively supports Russia With a Flurry of High-Profile Coronavirus Cases, Washington Is Again on Edge The Real Reason U.S. Oil Producers Are Exercising Caution US coal production falls 5.5% on week: EIA US oil, gas rig count continues to climb as prices remain high: Enverus US natural gas storage declines more than forecast as Henry Hub futures surge Russian gas flows to Europe via Nord Stream 1 decline Analysis: Europe faces struggle to escape Russian gas this year Russian oil traders switch to private dealings from public tenders Nomination requests for Nord Stream 1 fall to 56.8 mln kwh/h Retreat from Russia riddled with risks for Western banks Russia Bonds Rise, Default Risk Tumbles as Payment Sent to Citi Big Tobacco’s future in Russia goes up in smoke Russian Oil Exports Rise Despite Reluctant Buyers IGC cuts 2021-22 global grain exports estimate 9 mil mt as Black Sea trade halts Russia’s energy ministry proposes to defer refinery upgrades due to sanctions: report UK revokes Russian channel RT’s licence after probe into Ukraine coverage

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#Diesel #Shortages Cause More Damage Than #Gasoline

 OILPRICE.COM

The World Is Facing A Critical Diesel Shortage

By Irina Slav - Mar 15, 2022, 

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• Kemp: diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008.
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• Russia is a major supplier of diesel, meaning Western sanctions for its invasion of Ukraine are affecting these supplies too.
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• A further rise in diesel prices is expected as production still has to catch up.
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A crude oil shortage is invariably bad news for those that consume oil products. But when it comes to these products, a diesel shortage has the potential to be even more devastating than a crude shortage. Reuters' Rowena Edwards reported in early February that the supply tightness in crude oil, gas, and coal was beginning to spread to oil products, most notably middle distillates, the most popular among which is diesel fuel. 

The fuel, whose biggest market is freight transport, got hit severely during the pandemic lockdowns as transport rates declined. After the end of the lockdowns, however, as economies began to recover from the worst of the pandemic, transport picked up, and diesel fuel demand jumped. Yet production still has to catch up.

Reuters' John Kemp reported this week that diesel fuel stocks in Europe are at their lowest since 2008, and 8 percent—or 35 million barrels—lower than the five-year average for this time of the year.

In the United States, the situation is graver still. There, diesel fuel inventories are 21 percent lower than the pre-pandemic five-year seasonal average, which translates into 30 million barrels.

Read More

TRUCKING SUPPLY CHAIN CRISIS NEARS

 

OPEC Production Problems Push Oil Prices Higher

By Josh Owens - Feb 11, 2022, 2:00 PM CST

News of an 'imminent' nuclear deal with Iran sent oil prices lower this week, but the reality of OPEC underproduction soon shifted sentiment and sent prices higher on Friday.

Friday, February 11th, 2022

Wherever you looked this week, it seemed that Iran was at the center of all oil market news. The prospect of a breakthrough in the nuclear deal, a breakthrough that was assumed to be imminent by several participants, drove oil prices lower over the week after last week’s bull run to mid $90s. The fact that Iran’s crude would take several months to reach markets if a deal were agreed upon shows that this was largely driven by sentiment. On the fundamental front, OPEC+ underperformance is potentially flirting with 1 million b/d in February, news that led even the IEA to get involved in pushing for more oil. The IEA joined the ranks of India and other major importers, all calling upon Middle Eastern exporters to bring more crude into the markets.

IEA Calls Out Saudi Arabia and UAE. The International Energy Agency (IEA) stated that Saudi Arabia and the UAE could use their spare capacity to compensate for the ever-worsening underperformance of OPEC+, with the missing volumes totaling some 800,000 b/d since the start of 2021. 

Global Shortage Spreads to Diesel. Global shortages of diesel have become the new talk of the town as inventories in Northwest Europe fell to their lowest level since at least 2008, whilst Singapore gasoil stocks also dropped to multi-year lows of 8.2 million barrels. 

Libya Gets Closer to the Brink, Again. The prospects of oil production in Libya were hampered after the eastern-based parliament in Tobruk named Fathi Bashagha the country’s new prime minister, unbeknownst to the other government in Tripoli, ratcheting up risks of further infighting. 

READ MORE

#Oil Hits Seven-Year #Highs as #Rally Extends to a 7th Week

TROUBLE AHEAD AS OIL HITS 7 YEAR HIGH

Editor's Comments

Many leading experts and oil executives now expect oil prices to climb well over $100 a barrel this year and that would be disastrous for the economy just as it was in 2008. 

We know that we are on the downward supply slope that anticipates exhaustion by 2050. The pressure and trend are towards higher and higher prices. Like it or not - oil is the lifeblood of energy and thereby the economy. 

Huge increases in prices could have massive inflationary effects combined with asset deflation that could collapse the banking sector as collateral values decline beyond lending obligations and fresh lending shrinks dramatically under large interest rate increases.

To sum up, the global economy faces a tough road ahead as we cannot defeat the mathematics of hard physical constraints with finite resources.

T A McNeil

Founder CEO

First Financial Insights

HERE WE GO AGAIN?

Diesel prices move higher with inventories low in the U.S., Europe Oil rocketed to a fresh seven-year high above $92 a barrel, and almost every indicator is pointing to the rally extending. 

The market’s structure is trading at its strongest level in years, indicating scarce supply. Diesel — the fuel that helps power the global economy — is also surging as a cold snap hits the U.S. and demand soars. Inventories at key storage hubs are waning, and vital price gauges indicate an expectation the tightness will persist. 

Traders increasingly suspect demand is being underestimated as economies emerge from Covid-19. Saudi Arabia’s state oil company said late last month that consumption will soon return to pre-pandemic levels, though International Energy Agency data show it about 1 million barrels a day lower in the first quarter than during the same period in 2019.

READ MORE  www.bloomberg.com

BUFFET EXPLAINS THE 2008 MELTDOWN

TOP DAILY #ENERGY #HEADLINES - February 4, 2022

 EDITOR'S COMMENTS - The End of Fossil Energy

Oil futures continue to rise as production increases are uncertain and cold weather is impacting physical production. If prices continue to climb then it will exacerbate economic decline and recessionary trends. Expect more sell-offs in high-tech and crypto markets as shortages of essential resources become critical. 

• Crude oil futures extend gains after overnight vault over $90/b
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• Oil over $90 a Barrel as Winter Weather Threatens Production
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• Cracking down on methane ‘super emitters’ is a quick, low-cost way to combat climate change, researchers find
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• OPEC’s No.2 Fails To Reach Oil Output Quota

• Will OPEC+ Actually Deliver The Extra Barrels It Promised?
• January oil revenues soar to decade high despite dip in exports
• U.S. Sees Iran’s Nuclear Program as Too Advanced to Restore Key Goal of 2015 Pact – WSJ
• Oil Production Vessel Explodes Offshore Nigeria
• Nigeria Losing Major Investors to Escalating Oil Theft
• China plans national power market by 2030 to boost decarbonization efforts
• U.S. Shale Surge Should Worry Oil Markets, Conoco CEO Says
• Oil Frackers Brace for End of the U.S. Shale Boom – WSJ
• The Next Big Problem For U.S. Shale
• Car Giants Are Making Big Bets On Solid State Batteries
• Plastic Will Fuel Oil Demand For Years To Come
• U.S. Senators Want To Put Brakes On LNG Exports To Curb Domestic Energy Bills
• Texas Grid May Be Showing Signs Of Faltering
• Permian freeze cuts gas production as frigid weather promises more to come
• US natural gas storage fields post largest draw of season at 268 Bcf: EIA
• UD team devises CO2 direct air capture device powered by hydrogen for HEMFCs
• Harvard’s $53 Billion Endowment Is Boosting Its Bets on ‘Climate Solutions’
• Putin arrives in Beijing for Winter Olympics with gas supply deal for China
• Russia and China agree 30-year gas deal using new pipeline – source
• Boris Johnson braced for further resignations of Downing Street aides
• Russia-Ukraine Crisis Live Updates: Putin and Xi to Meet in China
• Major Northwest Europe Oil Terminals Disrupted By Cyberattack

Oil Markets Bullish As Brent Breaks $90

 

Dear Member ,   Greetings from London. Oil markets are looking increasingly bullish as geopolitical risks spike and inventories continue to drain. Oilprice Alert: Private equity investment took off in 2021, and now, Oilprice.com founder James Stafford is welcoming you to learn more about this secretive world of wealth generation. Join InnerCircle for free, and receive our 50-page whitepaper on Private Placement investing. Friday, January 28th, 2022 For the first time in seven years, Brent prices surged past $90 per barrel this week, buoyed by a series of bullish factors. First, low inventories remain the number one reason underlying investment banks’ $100 per barrel short-term forecasts. The fact that US commercial stocks just fell for the third time in a row has not helped that. Second, with much of Europe captivated by the prolonged Russia-Ukraine standoff, speculation that Russian oil might be embargoed from the market added another geopolitical premium to prices. Simultaneously, supply scarcity remains a global worry as corroborated by steep backwardation – the Brent six-month market structure was almost at $7 per barrel this week – with very little indication that OPEC+ would be willing to churn out more than it is supposed to under the terms of its agreement. Things are looking very bullish for oil markets indeed. US Natgas Prices See Record One-Day Spike. With the weather forecast indicating colder weather to come, Henry Hub gas futures saw their sharpest one-day climb this week just as the February contract was about to expire, surging from $4.50 to $7 per mmBtu at the peak of trading, only to settle at $6.3 per mmBtu.  Saudi Aramco Hits Out at Energy Transition. Saudi Aramco (TADAWUL:2222) CEO Amin Nasser said the current transition towards a sustainable energy future is not going smoothly, highlighting the need to invest in oil and gas if the markets are to avoid the current tightness seen right now in Europe and parts of Asia.  Russia Expects Iran Deal Breakthrough in Q2. According to Russia’s envoy to the JCPOA talks on the revival of the Iranian nuclear deal, if the negotiations continue at their current pace an agreement would be reached by the end of February, though it might take another two months to have it finalized. Nord Stream 2 Registers German Subsidiary, Awaits Decision. The operator of the Gazprom-led (MCX:GAZP) Nord Stream 2 pipeline has registered a subsidiary for the German section of the pipeline to meet the requirements of the country’s energy regulator BNetzA.  Coal Prices Surge on Ukraine Tensions. The global coal benchmark Newcastle coal index has risen by more than 30% over January 2022, currently trending above $260 per metric tonne, as the belligerent rhetoric surrounding the Russia-Ukraine conflict sparked fears that Russia’s gas supplies might be cut US Judge Annuals Gulf of Mexico Auction over Climate Concerns. A US federal judge annulled the latest Gulf of Mexico Lease Sale 257 held last November - assumed to be the last under the Biden Administration - arguing that the auction failed to assess the climate impact of prospective offshore drilling.  Trafigura to Build Up a New Russian Base. Global trading house Trafigura plans to start base oil exports from the Russian port of Vyborg, creating a new export route from one of Russia’s least utilized export terminals, with a view to managing 15-20% of Russia’s total base oil production. Siemens Energy to Seek Full Integration of Wind Business. German energy conglomerate Siemens Energy (ETR:ENR) has reportedly stepped up efforts to carry out a full integration of its wind turbine business Siemens Gamesa (BME:SGRE), still unable to sort out the ownership structure of a spun-off entity that it does not control.  Key US Shale Pipeline Jeopardized. The US Court of Appeals has nixed the federal permit issued towards the Mountain Valley Pipeline, a key conduit that would send Appalachian gas to Virginia and is more than 90% complete, arguing that government approvals did not consider erosion impacts.  Ammonia Bunkering Safety Study Kicks Off. A Singapore industry group comprising the local authorities and shipping giants commissioned an ammonia bunkering safety study from industry registrar DNV that would seek to establish a preliminary regulatory framework for the nascent bunker fuel.  Glencore Wants More Food in Portfolio. Global trading firm Glencore (GLEN) bought US grain trader Gavilon from Marubeni Corp for $1.125 billion, increasing its US grain exposure as well as becoming the third-largest exporter of Brazilian soybeans once the deal closes by 2023.  BP Lures Renewables Executive from Orsted. UK major British Petroleum (NYSE:BP) hired an executive from Danish wind power Orsted (CPH:ORSTED) to head the company’s new offshore wind division in the second half of 2022, with an onshore wind and solar power unit set to be developed.  Oman Launches First Spot Market in the Middle East. Oman has formally launched the first electricity spot market in the Middle East, with the stated aim of increasing the efficiency of power procurement, a delicate way of saying that Muscat would seek to avoid protests driven by high electricity prices. Canada Greenlights Chinese Buying of Lithium Firm. Canada’s government approved the deal seeing Chinese firm Zijin Mining Group (SS:601899) buy Toronto-listed lithium miner Neo Lithium (CVE:NLC) for $720 million, despite heavy objections from opposition parties arguing that China’s clout over critical minerals keeps on increasing. Thanks for reading and we’ll see you next week.  Best Regards, Tom Kool Editor, Oilprice.com