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Monday, 20 May 2019

#ENERGY #CRISIS LOOMS: With Shrinking Oil and Coal Supply

Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?




Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their cost of production. There often are supply gluts at the same time.
This strange situation arises because prices must be high enough for the producers at the same time that goods and services made by oil (and other energy products) are inexpensive enough for consumers to afford. There is a two way battle taking place:
(1) Prices producers require tend to rise over time, because of depletion. The easiest to extract portion of any resource (such as oil, coal, copper, or lithium) tends to be removed first. What is left tends to be deeper, lower quality, or otherwise more difficult to extract cheaply.
(2) Prices consumers can afford for discretionary goods (such as cell phones and automobiles) tend to fall for a combination of reasons:

Image result for student loans

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Peak Oil And Its Consequences







    Wednesday, 15 May 2019

    #OPEC Production Continues Slide - Can USA Stave Off Global Peak #Oil?


    "Saudi Arabia dropped another 45,000 barrels per day in April"





    OPEC April Production Data


    The data below was taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through April 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day. The data is crude only, that is it does not include condensate.
    Total OPEC production hardly moved in April, down a mere 3,000 barrels per day.


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    THE FUTURE OF OIL


    Monday, 13 May 2019

    Renewable (SIC) #Energy #Hoax Won't Save Us

    "Now that we know that renewables (Clean) can’t save the planet, are we really going to stand by and let them destroy it?"




    When I was a boy, my parents would sometimes take my sister and me camping in the desert. A lot of people think deserts are empty, but my parents taught us to see the wildlife all around us, including hawks, eagles, and tortoises.
    After college, I moved to California to work on environmental campaigns. I helped save the state’s last ancient redwood forest and blocked a proposed radioactive waste repository set for the desert.
    In 2002, shortly after I turned 30, I decided I wanted to dedicate myself to addressing climate change. I was worried that global warming would end up destroying many of the natural environments that people had worked so hard to protect.
    Image result for limits to growth cartoon
    I thought the solutions were pretty straightforward: solar panels on every roof, electric cars in every driveway, etc. The main obstacles, I believed, were political. And so I helped organize a coalition of America’s largest labor unions and environmental groups. Our proposal was for a $300 billion dollar investment in renewables. We would not only prevent climate change but also create millions of new jobs in a fast-growing high-tech sector.
    MYTHS OF RENEWABLE ENERGY
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    Tuesday, 7 May 2019

    #Collapse Approaches - Do The #Math

    "The main lesson for me is that growth is not a “good quantum number,” as physicists will say: it’s not an invariant of our world. Cling to it at your own peril" 

    By Tom Murphy


    Image result for simple math

    Exponential Economist Meets Finite Physicist

    Some while back, I found myself sitting next to an accomplished economics professor at a dinner event. Shortly after pleasantries, I said to him, “economic growth cannot continue indefinitely,” just to see where things would go. It was a lively and informative conversation. I was somewhat alarmed by the disconnect between economic theory and physical constraints—not for the first time, but here it was up-close and personal. Though my memory is not keen enough to recount our conversation verbatim, I thought I would at least try to capture the key points and convey the essence of the tennis match—with some entertainment value thrown in.
    Cast of characters: Physicist, played by me; Economist, played by an established economics professor from a prestigious institution. Scene: banquet dinner, played in four acts (courses).
    U.S. total energy 1650-present (logarithmic)
    Note: because I have a better retention of my own thoughts than those of my conversational companion, this recreation is lopsided to represent my own points/words. So while it may look like a physicist-dominated conversation, this is more an artifact of my own recall capabilities. I also should say that the other people at our table were not paying attention to our conversation, so I don’t know what makes me think this will be interesting to readers if it wasn’t even interesting enough to others at the table! But here goes…

    Act One: Bread and Butter

    Physicist: Hi, I’m Tom. I’m a physicist.
    Economist: Hi Tom, I’m [ahem..cough]. I’m an economist.
    Physicist: Hey, that’s great. I’ve been thinking a bit about growth and want to run an idea by you. I claim that economic growth cannot continue indefinitely.
    Economist: [chokes on bread crumb] Did I hear you right? Did you say that growth can not continue forever?


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    MIT LIMITS TO GROWTH

    Monday, 6 May 2019

    Transition From Fossil #Fuels Ushers Dark-Age #Outlook

     "We can’t know exactly what is ahead, but it is clear that moving away from fossil fuels will be far more destructive of our current economy than nearly everyone expects"
     Image result for fossil fuels

     The true feasibility of moving away from fossil fuels

    One of the great misconceptions of our time is the belief that we can move away from fossil fuels if we make suitable choices on fuels. In one view, we can make the transition to a low-energy economy powered by wind, water, and solar. In other versions, we might include some other energy sources, such as biofuels or nuclear, but the story is not very different.

     


    The problem is the same regardless of what lower bound a person chooses: our economy is way too dependent on consuming an amount of energy that grows with each added human participant in the economy. This added energy is necessary because each person needs food, transportation, housing, and clothing, all of which are dependent upon energy consumption. The economy operates under the laws of physics, and history shows disturbing outcomes if energy consumption per capita declines.

     


    There are a number of issues:

    • The impact of alternative energy sources is smaller than commonly believed.
    • When countries have reduced their energy consumption per capita by significant amounts, the results have been very unsatisfactory.
    • Energy consumption plays a bigger role in our lives than most of us imagine.
    • It seems likely that fossil fuels will leave us before we can leave them.
    • The timing of when fossil fuels will leave us seems to depend on when central banks lose their ability to stimulate the economy through lower interest rates.
    • If fossil fuels leave us, the result could be the collapse of financial systems and governments.
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    NOT AN EASY TRANSITION


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