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Monday, 17 June 2019

#Oil Demand Slows, #Global Trade War Tensions Mount


"Surging U.S. supply as well as gains from Brazil, Canada and Norway would contribute to an increase in non-OPEC supply of 1.9 million bpd this year and 2.3 million bpd in 2020" 

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IEA cuts 2019 estimate for oil demand growth on global trade worries


 LONDON (Reuters) - The outlook for oil demand growth in 2019 has dimmed due to worsening prospects for world trade, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Friday, although stimulus packages and developing countries should boost growth going into 2020. 


The Paris-based IEA, which coordinates the energy policies of industrial nations, revised down its 2019 demand growth estimate by 100,000 barrels to 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd), but said it would climb to 1.4 million bpd for 2020. 

“The main focus is on oil demand as economic sentiment weakens ... The consequences for oil demand are becoming apparent,” the IEA said in its monthly oil report. 

“The worsening trade outlook (is) a common theme across all regions”, it added. 

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The oil demand growth forecast assumes the maintenance of U.S. and Chinese tariffs imposed on goods in 2018, but the IEA said it had not factored in further U.S. tariffs announced in May.



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TRADE WAR ESCALATES!

 

Monday, 10 June 2019

Ultimately REAL PHYSICAL #Economic #Growth Stops, And Then...

"What economists around the world get wrong about the future."

Nubes, 2011.


THE FALLACY OF ENDLESS ECONOMIC GROWTH


The idea that economic growth can continue forever on a finite planet is the unifying faith of industrial civilization. That it is nonsensical in the extreme, a deluded fantasy, doesn't appear to bother us. We hear the holy truth in the decrees of elected officials, in the laments of economists about flagging GDP, in the authoritative pages of opinion, in the whirligig of advertising, at the World Bank and on Wall Street, in the prospectuses of globe-spanning corporations and in the halls of the smallest small-town chambers of commerce. Growth is sacrosanct. Growth will bring jobs and income, which allow us entry into the state of grace known as affluence, which permits us to consume more, providing more jobs for more people producing more goods and services so that the all-mighty economy can continue to grow. "Growth is our idol, our golden calf," Herman Daly, an economist known for his anti-growth heresies, told me recently.
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In the United States, the religion is expressed most avidly in the cult of the American Dream. The gatekeepers of the faith happen to not only be American: The Dream is now, and has long been, a pandemic disorder. Growth is a moral imperative in the developing world, we are told, because it will free the global poor from deprivation and disease. It will enrich and educate the women of the world, reducing birth rates. It will provide us the means to pay for environmental remediation—to clean up what so-called economic progress has despoiled. It will lift all boats, making us all rich, healthy, happy. East and West, Asia and Europe, communist and capitalist, big business and big labor, Nazi and neoliberal, the governments of just about every modern nation on Earth: All have espoused the mad growthist creed.



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WHY DON'T WE APPLY EXPONENTIALS TO OUR EXISTENTIAL LIMITS?


Monday, 27 May 2019

Resource #Depletion:#Venezuela's Darkness May One Day Strike Everyone?

"the nation is experiencing hyperinflation projected to reach a mind-boggling 10 million percent this year, is grappling with food and medical shortages and has lost about 10 percent of its population to migration in the past few years.'


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Venezuela plunges into darkness amid widespread outage




CARACAS, Venezuela (AP) — Much of Venezuela plunged into darkness Thursday evening, creating chaos as people struggled to navigate their way home amid what appeared to be one of the biggest blackouts yet in a country where power failures have become common.
The power outage began just as commuters were leaving work. Hundreds crammed the streets of Caracas, forced to walk because subway service was stopped. A snarl of cars jammed the streets amid confusion generated by blackened stoplights.

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President Nicolas Maduro blasted the outage as an “electrical war” directed by the United States in a statement on Twitter. His information minister, Jorge Rodriguez, said right-wing extremists intent on creating pandemonium by leaving the South American nation without power for several days were behind the blackout, but he offered no proof.



OMEN OF THINGS TO COME
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Monday, 20 May 2019

#ENERGY #CRISIS LOOMS: With Shrinking Oil and Coal Supply

Have We Already Passed World Peak Oil and World Peak Coal?




Most people expect that our signal of an impending reduction in world oil or coal production will be high prices. Looking at historical data (for example, this post and this post), this is precisely the opposite of the correct price signal. Oil and coal supplies decline because prices fall too low for producers. These producers make voluntary cutbacks because the prices they receive fall below their cost of production. There often are supply gluts at the same time.
This strange situation arises because prices must be high enough for the producers at the same time that goods and services made by oil (and other energy products) are inexpensive enough for consumers to afford. There is a two way battle taking place:
(1) Prices producers require tend to rise over time, because of depletion. The easiest to extract portion of any resource (such as oil, coal, copper, or lithium) tends to be removed first. What is left tends to be deeper, lower quality, or otherwise more difficult to extract cheaply.
(2) Prices consumers can afford for discretionary goods (such as cell phones and automobiles) tend to fall for a combination of reasons:

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Peak Oil And Its Consequences







    Wednesday, 15 May 2019

    #OPEC Production Continues Slide - Can USA Stave Off Global Peak #Oil?


    "Saudi Arabia dropped another 45,000 barrels per day in April"





    OPEC April Production Data


    The data below was taken from the OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report. All data is through April 2019 and is in thousand barrels per day. The data is crude only, that is it does not include condensate.
    Total OPEC production hardly moved in April, down a mere 3,000 barrels per day.


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    THE FUTURE OF OIL


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