Can #Non-OPEC Production Mitigate #Oil #Shortages?

 

November Non-OPEC Oil Production Ticks Up

Below are a number of oil, crude plus condensate (C + C ), production charts for Non-OPEC countries created from data provided by the EIA’s International Energy Statistics and updated to November 2021. Information from other sources such as OPEC, the STEO and country specific sites such as Russia, Brazil, Norway and China is used to provide a short term outlook for future output and direction for a few countries and the world.

November Non-OPEC production increased by 410 kb/d to 49,870 kb/d. Of the 410 kb/d increase, the biggest increase came from the US with 244 kb/d along with a number of smaller increases. The other increasing countries were Brazil 74 kb/d, Kazakhstan 82 kb/d and Russia, 63 kb/d for a total of 463 kb/d. The biggest declines occurred in Guyana 86 kb/d and Norway 85 kb/d.  

Using data from the March 2022 STEO, a projection for Non-OPEC oil output was made for the time period December 2021 to December 2023 (Red graph).  Output is expected to reach 52,082 kb/d in December 2023, which is 295 kb/d lower than the January pre-covid peak of 52,377 kb/d. Note the projected drop for December 2021.

The current December 2023 output of 52,082 was revised down by 474 kb/d from the previous February report. The downward revision is primarily related to the STEO’s downward projection of close to 500 kb/d for Russian output, relative to February 2022. The revision is due to sanctions imposed by the US and its allies and the difficulty Russia is having in finding buyers for its oil. See Russia chart below for further details.

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