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The End Of A Trend: Oil Prices And Economic Growth
It used to be that when it came to the world economy, oil prices and economic growth were more like distant cousins who disliked each other rather than a happily married couple always seen nuzzling together in public. The received wisdom was that low oil prices are good for the overall economy even if they are bad for the oil industry and for countries that are heavily dependent on oil for their revenues. That’s what many believed when suggesting that even though high oil prices and an attendant oil boom had underpinned economic recovery in the United States after the 2008 financial crash, low oil prices would now somehow on balance deliver even more recovery. And, low prices would also benefit the rest of the world as well. Nowadays, as the oil price dips into the low $40 range again and economic growth weakens simultaneously, we must […]
Saudis Win IMF Praise Two Years After Warnings of Financial Ruin
Medium-term growth needs to be higher to absorb job seekers In October, the International Monetary Fund warned that Saudi Arabia could deplete its financial assets within five years. It’s now finding more reasons to be optimistic about the biggest Arab economy. Spending cuts and measures including the gradual reduction of energy subsidies mean that the budget deficit will probably fall to 9.6 percent of economic output in 2017 from 13 percent this year, according to Tim Callen, the IMF’s Saudi mission chief. The shortfall was 16 percent in 2015. “The fiscal adjustment is under way, the government is very serious in bringing about that fiscal adjustment,” Callen said in a telephone interview on Wednesday. “We’re happy with the progress that’s being made.” The kingdom responded to the drop in crude prices by laying out a plan for the biggest economic shakeup […]
Oil Traders Have Almost Zero Faith in Key Libyan Ports Resuming
Unity government reached a deal with guards to reopen ports Measure viewed as insufficient to drive up flows from country Oil traders who specialize in purchasing cargoes from Mediterranean ports view the chances of an imminent resumption of shipments from two key Libyan terminals as almost zero, even after a deal was struck to reopen the facilities. Close all those tabs. Open this email. Get Bloomberg’s daily newsletter. Politics The latest political news, analysis, charts, and dispatches from the campaign trail. You will now receive the Politics newsletter Markets Your daily must-read for the most important news in markets. You will now receive the Markets newsletter Pursuits What to eat, drink, wear and drive – in real life and your dreams. You will now receive the Pursuits newsletter Game Plan The school, work and life hacks you need to […]
6 Signs The Big Global Switch To Solar Has Already Begun
China has installed 20 gigawatts of new solar power just in the first half of this year. This achievement beats analysts’ expectations by a wide margin. China wants to add 20 GW of new solar every year for the next four, but apparently could do twice that. At the end of 2015, China had about 40 gigawatts of installed solar power, so in just six months it has added half as much again. It already surpasses the previous solar champ, Germany. The Crescent Dunes “concentrating solar power” plant in Nevada, operated by a Santa Monica firm, is using molten salt as a battery so that it can generate electricity 24/7. It is the first such plant to use solar energy to melt the salt directly instead of via oil, which is a huge advance in efficiency. All electricity plants are just a way to turn turbines using boiling water. […]
What Oil in the $40s Means for Oil Majors
BP and Shell are trading with dividend yields above 7%, while Eni, which cut its… It all seemed to be going so well, but European oil groups have stumbled again. After all, oil prices had ridden a strong, sustained recovery and investor faith was growing that these companies really were tackling costs and changing their business models to suit cheaper oil. But now the bumps are back. Second-quarter results were disappointing and the oil price is down about 20% in the past two months. The results showed that even before prices began to slide, investors and analysts had got a little ahead of themselves, particularly with regard to cash flows. That is far away from how the five companies have been performing. Free cash flows actually have been worsening and recent results took cumulative flows for the past four quarters at the big five down to minus $23 billion, […]
